BabyPips.com Forex Forum

BabyPips.com Forex Forum (/)
-   Show me the money! [Daytrading] (http://forums.babypips.com/show-me-money-daytrading/)
-   -   Never Lose Again!! (http://forums.babypips.com/show-me-money-daytrading/16021-never-lose-again.html)

ewokuk 09-16-2008 04:03 PM

im still doing ok,

friday 15 trades, 3 losers, 12 winners +40 pips
monday/tuesday overnight 8 trades, 8 wins, +59 pips
tuesday 6 trades so far, 3 losers, 3 winners, +29 pips

the problem i still have is a lot of these have gone 30-50 pips the wrong way before comming good as ive not put a stop on them, most would have been losers with any stop less than 50 pips.

the only reason i am +29 today so far is the trade that went 50 pips the wrong way, i placed a new short after -25 pips and another after -50 pips so i was able to close it for 25 pip gain without it going right back to where i first opened it. even now i have an audusd short open which has just gone 40 pips the wrong way so far again, never got close to profit.

i have to do something about this because if this wasnt a practice account i would not be happy about letting a trade get anywhere near -50 and wipe out a day or more of profits in one trade, all it takes is 2 or 3 of them and its maybe a weeks work gone along with any confidence. the other problem is the further away it gets, the more you want to wait for it to come back the right way and save you from those big losses so you leave it and leave it and it keeps moving the wrong way.

i need to sort these issues before i go live again in a couple of weeks (providing i remain profitable between now and then).

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edacsac (Post 68460)
TRO,

Your last two charts: It looks like a 1-2-3, up, down, up. The doco I just read about 1-2-3 patterns from sweet pip explains to enter at the breakout of #2 I think. So from what I understand, the last red candle on your charts, shouldn't be used for entry until it passes #2 - which would miss the action.

Previously I would have entered a short on that last candle somewhere after an "eyeballed" pivot point of the previous candle. Lately that has been a fatal move as the price decides to break resisitance and continue in the other direction the majority of the time.

I did NOT write the indicator or method for that document.

I wrote the indicator for "my way" and I am presenting it "my way".

One does NOT negate the other. They are just different.

ewokuk 09-16-2008 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 68476)
I am not sure you understand.

If you want to go long and BUY AT THE BID, you can get filled in one of 2 ways:

1) you are the best bid, first in line and someone enters a market sell order

2) the ask price moves down to your bid price


If you want to sell your long AT THE ASK, you can get filled in one of 2 ways:

1) you are the best ask, first in line and someone enters a market buy order

2) the bid price moves up to your ask price

tis is what i was wondering about it too. surely if the bid price moves up to your ask price, it opens the trade and you end up paying the spread? the onyl time you pay no spread is if someone takes your price before the real price moves to it (which when doing fast scalping could be only a few seconds).

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip (Post 68463)
I'm thinking the perhaps answer lies in checking what price is doing in the bigger picture (higher timeframes) before jumping into a trade on a lower timeframe (i.e. like your homework suggestion to use Linear Regression Channels on weekly or monthly charts).

Another difference is overtrading...perhaps the wave one was on is over, but if you keep trading it like it wasn't, without seeing the bigger picture, your odds of losing start to increase.



How many times must I repeat myself?

PRICE IS PRICE.

PRICE IS THE SAME ON ALL TIME FRAMES.




I agree with the over trading.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edacsac (Post 68471)
i Was Just Going To Post A Similar Observation. I Just Checked On My 180 Pip Loser To See That It's Only A 40 Pip Loser. Not Only That, I Noticed Downward Action After Price Hit/broke Resistance. I Drew A Fib Retracement And Decided To Enter Long Halfway Between 23 And 38. I Made 7 Pips. So Now I'm Expecting Waves But The Wind Has Calmed. And Now That It's Calm, The H1 Is Not Steady. I Just Set A Buy Limit At The 23 Fib Line, But Now That I'm In The Trade, Price Hitting The 23 Has Made The H1 Go Red And I'm Now Against The H1! Happens All The Time.

But I'm Not Just Looking At 1-2-3. I'm Watching The Candlestick Wicks And Shadows, And I'm Also Seeing That Even Though We're Kinda Rolling 21 Bars For Dynamic S/r, It Might Be Time To Adjust, Since The "big" Move Is Over?

I Wish I Could Post Charts. You'd Probably Have Some Good Things To Say About What I'm Doing Wrong.



There Is No Right/wrong... Only Profitable/unprofitable.


TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewokuk (Post 68479)
tis is what i was wondering about it too. surely if the bid price moves up to your ask price, it opens the trade and you end up paying the spread? the onyl time you pay no spread is if someone takes your price before the real price moves to it (which when doing fast scalping could be only a few seconds).

YOU DON'T PAY THE SPREAD AT MB TRADING.

YOU ONLY PAY THE COMMISSION.


If you buy at 1.2222 and sell at 1.2227, you gross 5 pips and pay a commission.

The spread does NOT matter!!

See my other posts in the broker threads.

disbellj 09-16-2008 04:12 PM

Not so much buying I'm having trouble with
 
TRO,

I'll print this out about Buying using Limit, and keep it. I'm not having trouble doing either of these I don't think. But I'm having trouble with Selling at the Ask (first) and buying back (second, aka closing Sell) at the Bid.

Don

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 68476)
I am not sure you understand.

If you want to go long and BUY AT THE BID, you can get filled in one of 2 ways:

1) you are the best bid, first in line and someone enters a market sell order

2) the ask price moves down to your bid price


If you want to sell your long AT THE ASK, you can get filled in one of 2 ways:

1) you are the best ask, first in line and someone enters a market buy order

2) the bid price moves up to your ask price


Sweet Pip 09-16-2008 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 65357)
1) Did you get CLOBBERED by the market during the big drop in the Pound and the Euro?

2) Did you get caught short when the US Dollar ran up?
3) Did you look at the MONTHLY CHARTS BEFORE those events?

If you answered YES to 1 and/or 2 and NO to 3 THAT'S THE PROBLEM!!

WEEKLY HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT


Attached is a zip file with a modified version of a linear regression indicator and my new TRO TREND STATS.


When you see price at/near one of the outer lines, it will want to "regress" to the middle line.
After you view for the month, you then view for the week.

THIS WILL GIVE YOU THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE VIEW.

This homework assignment should be completed BEFORE your first trade of the week.

In fact, I would like it if each of you posted one chart here and discuss what you see on the chart.

Thanks.

This is the post I was referring to when checking price in the "big picture"...not much more became of it, but didn't want to leave this stone "unturned".

Sweet Pip 09-16-2008 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edacsac (Post 68471)
So now I'm expecting waves but the wind has calmed. And now that it's calm, the H1 is not steady. I just set a buy limit at the 23 fib line, but now that I'm in the trade, price hitting the 23 has made the H1 go red and I'm now against the H1! Happens all the time.

Perhaps instead of trying to force a trade in these situations, perhaps it's better to stay out...go find another pair, or quit for the day when in profit...there'll be more "wind" later/tomorrow :D

edacsac 09-16-2008 05:01 PM

I did it again! I made 17 pips over 3 trades. Then I moved over to EUR/USD. Seen price in a turn around, but missed the move. So I drew lines and stretched a fib from low to high and placed a buy limit just above 38% retracement at 20:49. Wouldn't you know that it went against me and the hour candle has changed to red as well. I didn't use a stop, but if I did I would have been out as soon as I entered. 17 pips in the hole, I guess it will come back again, but I only take 7-8 pips on a win. Using a stop, It would take me 3 trades to lose instead of one.

I don't know what to say. This really is the story of my trading. Gain 17 lose 20+. I'm also unclear about only making trades that are with the H1. If that was a criteara, I'd never make a trade. M5 drops 12 pip, the H1 changes.

I'm sorry I can't post a chart. If my lack of ability to post a chart invalidates my post, I won't post unless it is a reply to another post/chart.

edacsac 09-16-2008 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip (Post 68488)
Perhaps instead of trying to force a trade in these situations, perhaps it's better to stay out...go find another pair, or quit for the day when in profit...there'll be more "wind" later/tomorrow :D

The wind stopped so abrupty, I had no idea it would do that. It looks like TRO trades all day long. His charts are chock full of amazing moves every time he posts.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip (Post 68487)
This is the post I was referring to when checking price in the "big picture"...not much more became of it, but didn't want to leave this stone "unturned".

If you notice, it was a WEEKLY HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT and no one posted their homework.

Perhaps this weekend someone will.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edacsac (Post 68489)
I did it again! I made 17 pips over 3 trades. Then I moved over to EUR/USD. Seen price in a turn around, but missed the move. So I drew lines and stretched a fib from low to high and placed a buy limit just above 38% retracement at 20:49. Wouldn't you know that it went against me and the hour candle has changed to red as well. I didn't use a stop, but if I did I would have been out as soon as I entered. 17 pips in the hole, I guess it will come back again, but I only take 7-8 pips on a win. Using a stop, It would take me 3 trades to lose instead of one.

I don't know what to say. This really is the story of my trading. Gain 17 lose 20+. I'm also unclear about only making trades that are with the H1. If that was a criteara, I'd never make a trade. M5 drops 12 pip, the H1 changes.

I'm sorry I can't post a chart. If my lack of ability to post a chart invalidates my post, I won't post unless it is a reply to another post/chart.

I don't know where you got that method, but you didn't get it here.

Not sure why you can't post a chart.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edacsac (Post 68491)
The wind stopped so abrupty, I had no idea it would do that. It looks like TRO trades all day long. His charts are chock full of amazing moves every time he posts.


There is nothing AMAZING.

It's just price action.

Your charts should look the same as mine.

Don't you SEE that?

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 05:31 PM

http://i35.tinypic.com/2r4isxs.gif

PRICE MOVES.

Price must move through THE BUY ZONE.

Short at RED and long at BLUE.

Quick profit at GREEN.

Simple.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 05:35 PM

http://i34.tinypic.com/2qdctp5.gif

It may be easier for you to see it using M5.

The lines change each hour.

WHITE line is the OPEN price for the hour.

See, you are ALWAYS trading with H1 CANDLE COLOR when you trade THE BUY ZONE.

My last post was 4 minutes ago.

See what can happen if you WAIT FOR PRICE TO COME TO YOU!

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 05:42 PM

http://i33.tinypic.com/302t1ud.gif



PRICE EITHER GOES UP OR DOWN



Do you SEE that?

Look at the chart.

That last candle was GREEN and PRICE was ABOVE the BROWN dot but PRICE failed to make a NEW HIGH.

So if PRICE is NOT going UP....

DO YOU SEE IT YET?

And, YES, that does seem to CONTRADICT a rule of thumb. That rule is to keep you out of trouble. But PRICE knows no rules.


TO BE CONTINUED...

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 05:47 PM

ARE YOU CONFUSED?

I have shown you various HORIZONTAL LINE indicators and entry methods on chart after chart after chart...

DO YOU SEE WHAT THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON?

Remember, I told you that you do NOT need any of my "indicators".

ALL YOU NEED IS YOUR EYES!

DO YOU SEE IT YET?

TO BE CONTINUED...

edacsac 09-16-2008 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 68494)
I don't know where you got that method, but you didn't get it here.

Not sure why you can't post a chart.

Price had touched resistance and was already a couple of candles into the reversal. The H1 was green so I couldn't go short. What would you have done? Could you observe price getting ready to take a 85 pip dive? The only thing I observed was price climbed steadily to resistance and turned around. Wouldn't it make sense that the decline was a retracement?

That method is going from everything I learned here. I also ran through the whole thread again and wrote notes on key points before I attempted a trade.

I suppose I did get 2 good trades today. I almost reached my daily goal. Maybe by tomorrow my position will be back to where I can take a small loss and move on to a better trade. I hate waiting a whole day and night for a trade to come back from the depths of the abyss before I can try another trade.

How does this H1 candle really play into things? As I write this, a green candle came up for 30pips. Could I enter? It's against the H1.

I can't post a chart because I trade from my phone.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edacsac (Post 68501)
Price had touched resistance and was already a couple of candles into the reversal. The H1 was green so I couldn't go short. What would you have done? Could you observe price getting ready to take a 85 pip dive? The only thing I observed was price climbed steadily to resistance and turned around. Wouldn't it make sense that the decline was a retracement?

That method is going from everything I learned here. I also ran through the whole thread again and wrote notes on key points before I attempted a trade.

I suppose I did get 2 good trades today. I almost reached my daily goal. Maybe by tomorrow my position will be back to where I can take a small loss and move on to a better trade.

Then post your notes and the EXACT, SPECIFIC rules for entry.

Let's see what's missing and what doesn't belong.

TRADING FROM YOUR PHONE?!?!?

DO YOU REALIZE WHAT A BIG DISADVANTAGE THAT IS?

edacsac 09-16-2008 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 68502)
Then post your notes and the EXACT, SPECIFIC rules for entry.

Let's see what's missing and what doesn't belong.

TRADING FROM YOUR PHONE?!?!?

DO YOU REALIZE WHAT A BIG DISADVANTAGE THAT IS?

I'll post this one when I get home from work. I would value your opinion on what I did unprofitable. I f I knew what I was doing, I could have gained 10% on my account in just 2 days, including losses. Thats the frustrating part.

stephangiunta 09-16-2008 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 68500)
ARE YOU CONFUSED?

I have shown you various HORIZONTAL LINE indicators and entry methods on chart after chart after chart...

DO YOU SEE WHAT THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON?

Remember, I told you that you do NOT need any of my "indicators".

ALL YOU NEED IS YOUR EYES!

DO YOU SEE IT YET?

TO BE CONTINUED...

after the green comes the red....??????

and after the red comes the green????

always

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stephangiunta (Post 68504)
after the green comes the red....??????

and after the red comes the green????

always


NO.

Sometimes RED follows RED.

Sometimes GREEN follows GREEN.

But sooner or later, the colors change.

There's something more "key" to SEE.

stephangiunta 09-16-2008 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stephangiunta (Post 68504)
after the green comes the red....??????

and after the red comes the green????

always

i didnt mean individual candles...
but after a streak of green always comes a streak ( or not streak) of red...

if you focus on color of H1, ther is higher probability of the longer streak to be from same color as H1 especially if in middle of trend of H1 ( ie: not close to support or resistance of H1, where things might be ( or not) less straightforward).

the height and width of support and resistance line ( the dynamic ones) also give indication as to where and when chnge in color might happen.

when a candle crosses any horizontal line there is a mucher higher probability of the candle going further than actully stopping at that line and reversing..... what i mean is that for any candle, even the shortest ones, it crosses more lines than than it reverses at a line.....

in other words each candles stops at only one line but has crossed many.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:20 PM

http://i36.tinypic.com/wtsq6x.gif

H1 and D1 both GREEN.

It's not hard to SEE.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stephangiunta (Post 68510)
i didnt mean individual candles...
but after a streak of green always comes a streak ( or not streak) of red...

if you focus on color of H1, ther is higher probability of the longer streak to be from same color as H1 especially if in middle of trend of H1 ( ie: not close to support or resistance of H1, where things might be ( or not) less straightforward).

the height and width of support and resistance line ( the dynamic ones) also give indication as to where and when chnge in color might happen.

when a candle crosses any horizontal line there is a mucher higher probability of the candle going further than actully stopping at that line and reversing..... what i mean is that for any candle, even the shortest ones, it crosses more lines than than it reverses at a line.....

in other words each candles stops at only one line but has crossed many.

You SEE it, don't you?

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:25 PM

http://i38.tinypic.com/mcwy12.gif

Buy Zone trade worked (again).

stephangiunta 09-16-2008 07:25 PM

i know what i see....

it makes some sense to me for the moment


but since i dont know what you see, i dont know what to answer to your question

:)

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:26 PM

http://i35.tinypic.com/mhdlq0.gif

The DRAGON TUNNEL told us which way to trade, as did the M15 candle color.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:28 PM

http://i34.tinypic.com/11bm9mg.gif

TRO SR RR gave us the profitable entry direction.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:31 PM

HORIZONTAL LINES AND CANDLE COLORS

http://i35.tinypic.com/2qnaweg.gif


DO YOU SEE SOMETHING ELSE THAT YOU NEED?

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:37 PM

From the 123 manual that was posted:

http://i38.tinypic.com/3338z9d.jpg

DO YOU AGREE?

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:41 PM

The articles HERE, quite likely the largest free collection of trading psychology articles on the Web, are available for downloading.

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:43 PM

Trading Psychology -vs- Trading Method

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:43 PM

Trading Psychology And Discipline

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:46 PM



HAVE YOU EVER GONE SHORT ON A GREEN CANDLE BECAUSE YOU THOUGHT PRICE WAS TOO HIGH?



http://i38.tinypic.com/bi9mbq.gif



QUIT THINKING AND START USING YOUR EYES TO SEE WHAT PRICE IS DOING!




Price went UP over 50 pips since the last post.

WHAT INDICATOR WOULD HAVE TOLD YOU TO BUY THEN?

TheRumpledOne 09-16-2008 07:48 PM

Trading Psychology