TygerKrane's Pip-Pickpocketing

[TygerKrane]

Yes, definitely take your time, go over it, sleep and let your subconscious put it together, then go over it again

As for what is the upside {of SPACE WARS}:

http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=59977#59977
Maintaining a large lot size, through the manipulation of space, is your sole focus; profit is the result of this.

[Captain Pugwash]

You might have already looked at this link Tyger, but if you already have, I hope it might help someone

Sometimes a concept that is explained with just a subtle difference can help to put things together.

For me, Bredins Space explanation is a real help. Just follow through his links from this page.

The slightly different notation suited me. I am now able to think in terms of a mini (or even micro) lot sizes to start my space trade sequence -this was a great help

All the best

[TygerKrane]

Week 10
1/2/11 - 1/6/11
0 entries
0%



Similar to Week 9, I didn't want to trade until I wrote down some objective analysis about my entries, did a lot of looking throughout the week, so I have today and tomorrow to get the writing done. At the end of the week though, it hit me that what I was actually doing was hoping/expecting to find some Holy Grail of entries where whatever Swing High/Swing Low I decided to enter at would never get violated...

As for Space Wars, looks like my initial entry box size will be 3lots/2.5%/83pips {i.e., initial entry @ approx. 3:1lev}; I am usually in the situation of trading two pairs, with an eye on a third... if I decide to get into my third pair, I'll stop trading one of the other pairs and move that box onto the third pair. (I hope that makes sense.) Anyways, for now, it seems like that's how I would handle it... Or maybe I'll just trade the third pair without any box, just making sure to keep the losses small on less than great entries / or focusing on taking only the best lower timeframe entries. I'll gradually ease into this, I might not even start the Space Wars this week if it doesn't feel totally comfortable when I'm in the heat of battle. Either way, mixed in with all this, the goal is also STILL to keep weekly losses below 5%.

The other thing I'm thinking about my Space Wars use is that, I don't think I want to reduce lots/increase space if my initial entry is going against me. It reminds me of when I was a Forex noob and I would get all emotionally attached to my analysis and just not be able to admit that I was wrong and get out of the trade. If I have my larger timeframe view, but my smaller timeframe entry gets violated, then I'll just treat it like my regular trading and get out. Yes, it sucks when you're stopped out by only a few pips, but I think its worse to get arrogant and feel that I can catch the best swing on my first try...
Now when I add-in, I will have a profit cushion, and as MightyOne has stated, your entries don't have to be as accurate when you have Other People's Money to play with, so for these later stages, it would be more beneficial to use Space Wars to compensate for less-than-accurate entries into a possible continuation trend.

(...rather than using Space Wars as a tool/excuse to keep my ego from having to face a loss from my initial analysis. )

:!:





I think that I know what I'm doing, but one of my current weaknesses is that when I'm on my own trading, sometimes I get these megalomaniac visions of grandeur. Definite account killer.
So I figure I might put myself out there for public scrutiny to make myself a bit more accountable for my actions. I remember when prochargedmopar was posting his account (I think sometime last year, or late 2009), I thought that was heroic.

The first two weeks at the very least will start off very slow, as I will feel a bit more cautious/apprehensive at the start of this Instant Self-Discipline experiment, but there is no doubt that this will be a GOOD kind of caution.

¤I'll do this at the end of each week. I have no idea how this will turn out (I couldn't fully tell you which side of the 95% I am on just yet.)
¤I'll try to limit my losses to -5% a week.
¤I'll go back into the shadows to regroup and reorganize if my balance gets -40% from this starting point.

As LittleKnown pointed out earlier, {paraphrase}"Won't this put unnecessary added pressure on myself?"
I can only say, back in his prime, Mike Tyson was knocking the heads off of 95% of the people out there; so I wouldn't be too embarrassed if I went in the ring with him and people saw me get my head knocked off too.
95% of traders fail, therefore...

Basically, for my [font=Comic Sans MS]current [/font] level of trading ability, I need to remember to keep a Marathon Mentality, and not the mentality for a Mad-Dash-for-Cash.

I will probably start off each week, and every few days by watching, We Are Traders - A Tribute to All Those Trading the Markets.

:!:



Week 1
10/30/11 - 11/4/11
43 entries
-4.22%



First off, I'll start off by saying that it was actually a surprise to me, and that in a little way, I'm kind of glad with the outcome of this week. I maintained a small level of losses each day, but on Friday, I got caught up in some NFP nastiness, and so I was pretty certain that my losses where somewhere in the -6% area. So I was elated to see that I hadn't even crossed 4.5%. Probably just goes to show, having the discipline to keep losses small, and a Marathon Mentality might can help to make things pay off in the end.

I did start this off VERY slow however, I'm not trying to show off and be macho, and that was a good thing. All my entries were at 1:1 , 2:1 leverage and I couldn't get a damn thing to stick, it was disgusting really, it could've been a morale killer. It got so much so, to the point that I actually meditated twice this week to try and get back in touch with Whatever-The-Hell-It-Was that made me so confident in the first place .

This week coming up will be a short one for me, I'm going to Cali for my birthday , so I'll probably only have two good days to look at the market. {If I trade while on vacation in Cali, then I'm obviously doing something WRONG } I assume that the week after might be kind of slow as I get readjusted when I come back as well. This is beginning to make my experiment sound very boring isn't it? Slow week this, low leverage that, excuses excuses...

Other than that, been thinking of some ways to fine tune my entry algorithm.

Charts to follow in next post.

:!:



Week 2
11/6/11 - 11/11/11
41 entries
-4.02%



From what I remember from this past week, I was just being lazy and trying to catch an easy swing move I could hold onto, so I could at least be in a trade while I got ready for my trip. I was definitely overtrading, considering my lack of focus for the week.
Was back in the situation where I had a lot of little profits I could've taken if I wasn't so focused on something bigger.
One morning was looking at M1 charts, I for some reason felt really comfortable with the PA there, felt that if I had profits, I would love to test scalping off of that at a decent leverage, b/c it felt much better for me to just put my stop at the last swing high/low and to respect whatever happened afterwards in my attempt to grab a quick 1-5 pips.
Had another idea to bring me back to trading based on correlated pairs. The reason is to help me try to get into continuation trades more b/c I'm naturally always trying to catch the reversal of a trend.

Other than that, I tried to take more pictures of my trades, but it was actually really disrupting and making things stressful.

:!:



Week 3
11/13/11 - 11/18/11
21 entries
-1.37%



My mind has been revolving around yet another way to use correlations between pairs, I've tried a couple times in the past, this time, I see something totally different from those other times for me to make observations on and react to. Additionally, it doesn't really deviate from the way I try to trade now, so I will integrate what I see with them a bit going forward I think. It is definitely for the purpose of picking pairs with great potential for swing/multi-day moves.
That being said, I need to ground myself first by taking smaller targets, again this week I came across some 10-15pip gains that I never took.
I think because I knew that I would be trading less for the week that just past, I went a little higher in leverage more often, than I did for the previous two weeks.
Friday was a nice AU trade that helped me out a bit, I'll post that trade up next. But generally speaking this week I was totally clueless with everything, I wanted to turn of my trading station everytime I turned it on, bc things just made no sense to me...even charts that made me naturally go , the happiness stopped there bc I just couldn't figure out how to merge into the market. So I guess on Friday, charts where as equally nice looking as they were all week, but I felt a bit more in sync with things as the week came to an end. Therefore I would say, unfortunately, b/c of the holiday this week, I don't think I'll really get a chance to ride that "momentum" (if it is actually even there in the first place ), I don't have expectations for doing much this week. Who knows, maybe correlations will prove there point and hook me up regardless

Also, if I can move fast enough tonight, I might put up a few other observations that have made impressions on me... looks like I'll be going contrary to withnail's AU supply & demand observations. I hope time permits and I can put up most of what I am thinking about.

Also, I'm VERY HAPPY with my new FXTS2 setup (took me forever to get the windows rearranged to the right position), and the the latest updates that FXCM put into the program this weekend.........

They're Great!!

:!:



Week 4
11/20/11 - 11/25/11
25 entries
-5.47%



With the week being Thanksgivings, I decided to let myself be a turkey . For the last time though. In my next post(s) <if there is time> I want to quickly markup the trade that started my downward spiral, and the Friday trade that would've made up for it had I been thinking clearly.

I'm pretty certain that I get a good number of trades that yield 10-15pips before I get stopped out (or maybe I just have selective memory on this topic.) Either way, probably time that I take the quick pips :p . I'm pretty sure there are enough of them to snowball into a more positive outcome for my weekly balance (and my trading psyche.)
[highlight=lightgreen]I Swear to you, it's like I'm constantly Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory with this.[/highlight]

I'm very anxious for this week and the next few to try out a filter for choosing my pairs and directions. I've spent much, much, MUCH time thinking about it; maybe in the end it is just a placebo effect that keeps me uni-directional for a longer time period. Now that the week has started, just dealing with the fact that even though you can visually backtest thousands of bars in minutes, in real time, you can only just wait hours and hours...and I also have to deal with the fact that even if I DO have something that helps me better pick pair & direction, I'm STILL going to have to take quick pips regardless and leave lots of pips on the table in these beginning stages.

:!:



Week 5
11/28/11 - 12/2/11
12 entries
1.39%



Purposely didn't get too involved this week, I actually REALLY wanted to post about what happened Thanksgivings week, so that's why I refrained from getting into a whole lot more trading on top of that. I'll try to take a review of things, if I can't post, I'll just mentally review and move on.

:!:



Week 6
12/5/11 - 12/9/11
36 entries
2.51%



Too drunk from the office Holiday party to try and say much, but I had to get this post out at the very least, lol.
Positive result for the week, but not the stable kind of performance that I can make a career out of...the week as a whole was good, but between Thurs night and the rest of Fri, I got myself down to -5% ON THE DAY. It got to the point where I overleveraged and turned off the trading station . Turned it back on some hours later and was able to end my Fri at +1.xx%. Hope to discuss more the trades later. Gonna miss those guys when I leave the job

Other than that, it's funny to think that all I need is 11.8% gain from this point to get me back to my starting balance...so close, yet "So Far Away":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UM249-WfP4

Carole King FTW!!
I think I'll pass out the rest of the night to this...

We Are Traders - A Tribute to All Those Trading the Markets






Week 7
12/12/11 - 12/16/11
31 entries
-8.87%



I went against my trading plan and missed 3 *great* days of trending action that my analysis is specifically meant to catch and get me into. So from Wednesday evening onwards, I got reckless and I guess was a bit upset about how I screwed up the trading action that fell right into my hands; so I ended up getting over-leveraged as I was attempting to get back into the flow.









Week 8
12/19/11 - 12/23/11
1 entry
-0.36%



Took 1 trade, realized I was WAYYY too busy for the week!! LOL

Charlie Brown FTW!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-UmQauo4iw









Week 9
12/26/11 - 12/30/11
0 entries
0%



Wanted to take this week to just look over a lot of screenshots and reanalyze what I'm doing for entries and when...ended up not doing even that. However, I did take the time to go through Space Wars two times, which was a much, much long overdue thing for me.
Realized I should try and write something objective for when I will take pullback entries vs. breakout entries; I find that if I am organized at least that much to be consistent in my actions, then whether I am right or wrong, it's easier to make the next set of observations to compare what has actually happened. Hopefully I can settle down to this in the next day or two so I can feel better getting back into the trading.




[highlight=lightgreen]===============================================================================================================[/highlight]

Overall, I am glad with doing this Instant Self-Discipline thing, out of 9 weeks --(or 7, if you don't count the last two weeks)-- I only spazzed out for two of them.
I was actually considering depositing money and resetting back to my $1250 mark to start the New Year off with. But no, it's better to keep this running balance as I try and make this objective analysis of when I want to take pullback vs. breakout entries; also for the fact that at some point, I'm going to have to try implementing the whole Space Wars MM strategy.
Well, I originally stated that my failure point would be my account reaching $750, so, for the time being, I'll stick with that and see what happens.

Other than that, I found myself wondering or trying to compare
1)Trading Forex
vs
2)Playing against AI in Chess

Which one should be more difficult?
I was thinking that maybe playing AI in Chess should be more difficult. (I'm no expert in Chess, btw)
I'm thinking this b/c I think that Chess has many more different moves at it's disposal than Forex. Well, I would personally only define the moves in Forex as

• Price Making new Highs/Lows
• Price Reversing from new Highs/Lows
• MOMO
• Price Returning to MightyZone
• Price Breaking Through MightyZone
• Price Returning to Consolidation

We Are Traders - A Tribute to All Those Trading the Markets

[TygerKrane]

You might have already looked at this link Tyger, but if you already have, I hope it might help someone

Sometimes a concept that is explained with just a subtle difference can help to put things together.

For me, Bredins Space explanation is a real help. Just follow through his links from this page.

The slightly different notation suited me. I am now able to think in terms of a mini (or even micro) lot sizes to start my space trade sequence -this was a great help

All the best

Cap'n,
Never seen the links before, thanks.

Bredz,
Fcuking Amazing Brilliant work there!!

~Krane

[bredin]

Thanks, Tygs

G.

[PebbleTrader]

"As for Space Wars, looks like my initial entry box size will be 3lots/2.5%/83pips {i.e., initial entry @ approx. 3:1lev}; I am usually in the situation of trading two pairs, with an eye on a third... if I decide to get into my third pair, I'll stop trading one of the other pairs and move that box onto the third pair."

Can we make more money trading multiple pairs? For the most part no.

Can we increase the likelihood of trading profits by trading multiple pairs? Yes

[PebbleTrader]

I loved Bredin's space write-up also

[PebbleTrader]

"As for Space Wars, looks like my initial entry box size will be 3lots/2.5%/83pips"

3 lots doesn't leave much room for error.

[prochargedmopar]

The following posts have caught my attention recently, I'd like to keep them together:

[highlight=#FFFFCC]*****************************************************[/highlight]

http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=60319#60319
Your space is large when the trade is low probability (there is only one lowest low but many lower lows) & smaller when the trade is high probability (the direction of profit).

http://www.kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic ... 9281#49281
My risk is smallest when I am most vulnerable

http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=50104#50104

I discovered a major flaw in my approach with starting off too big... It means that you can't go big later on... So no more high leverage scalps only normal leveraged scalps...

Lesson learned... Back to the drawing board...

It also means that you are overexposed when you are most vulnerable.

[highlight=#CCCC00]##########################################[/highlight]

http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=43873#43873
[font=Verdana][highlight=olive]THIS strategy, however, is more to my liking and so I have a greater motivation to try and include this into my trade management.[/highlight][/font]

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2009

It is not like I will ever get a chance to trade it as I have to get stopped out

Because I only trade in a long term direction I have other options available to me.

Swarm Entry Method:

Risk 3% for 2% and then then risk 0.5% per trade with the goal of accumulating a position in the direction of the high TF momo candle.

If 2% is lost then risk 3% and scalp another 2%.

Do not move stops, set a TP, or click out of the 0.5% trades as
you are ACCUMULATING units.

Goal is to accumulate 6 units and exit after a high TF momo candle or when you feel an exit is justified after accumulation is complete.

My goal is always the same:

ZERO DRAW DOWN (of my own money )

To accumulate 6units at 0.5% each, means to try and build up to 30:1lev

[highlight=#CCCC00]##########################################[/highlight]

Day trade in one direction for a long term duration and reinvest profits to increase staying power until your goals are met or you run into the
next period.

So what if you "worked hard" and your short term profits get erased.
So what if you lose your risk percent on a trade.

It is nearly impossible not to make money risking 0.5% per trade
and at 4% per trade your 1 day profit potential...well its just sick.

http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=13942#13942
Exiting a trade and resizing to a larger lot size is worth more than a 100, 1,000, or 10,000 pip move.

...

So let us say that you have $1,000 and are grudgingly willing to lose $45 on this trade. Your mind is made up, either you are going to take a profit or take a loss.

Your first trade you sell 5,000c leaving you with a 90 pip pincushion.

If the technical picture changes then you exit for a smaller loss

Let us say that a CC closes in your direction & that your average entry will make for good S&R.

Your second trade you sell 5,000c leaving you with a profit cushion & another 45 pips beyond that if need be.

After price moves a [s]good[/s] distance from your average entry then you sell 10,000c.

Notice that no small price spike is going to take you out of the market, you are in it to win it.

The object is to lose as little as possible while making as much as possible:

1. Enter with small orders when it is more likely that price will make a higher high (price is near the high).

2. Place averages above S&R after price closes in your direction.

3. Push with another wave of orders.

5. WAIT PATIENTLY

6. Place a limit order on the lowest low &/or lowest close.

7. Accept that you may give it all back

...

For the above and below quoteboxes, note and relate how much PA I am looking for if I want to reduce my POSITION from 90pips to 45pips, while adding lots to end up with 20:1 as a minimum leverage to aim for before my Close-Out-All exit...

You short term traders give me the most trouble

$10,000 account:

Entry 1: Sell 50,000c (~90 pip pincushion)
Entry 2: Sell 50,000c (~45 pip pincushion)
Entry 3: Sell 100,000c (You should have a large profit cushion)

Max loss is 4.5%

Once you are in position you make 5% per 25 pips...which is freaking insane as you could make 90% in a week (sextillions)

Entry 3 is for long term traders!

If you are not going to stick around awhile then don't even think about it.

You should be able to see why I tell you to trade based on daily+ PA.

Tiger,
Good post, good work, and I really like this:

Exiting a trade and resizing to a larger lot size is worth more than a 100, 1,000, or 10,000 pip move.

[Captain Pugwash]

If you liked the link Tygs

You might find using Bredins Space calculator pretty useful

Oh - nearly forgot, making use of the Space calculators attached dashboard can protect you from over-leveraging any trade. (which can happen pretty fast when using space.)

Best of luck