Patterns Observation.

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Don_xyZ
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Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Wed Jul 19, 2023 6:24 am

The science (some of it) of NO SL and ALL IN trades.

It can simply be summarized in just 1 word.... MOMENTUM.

Apparently, there is a lot going on in the background prior to taking those kinds of trades and it's kinda impossible for me to write them all up and it will encourage the not-think-for-yourself attitude :) So I will just share some.

1. Bias is KING! Actually, no matter what style of trading you use you will always need bias. The difference is you need to be DEAD SURE that the price will go your way whether it's for just 2 pips or 5 or 10 or even 100s. What? It's impossible! But it is possible as shown in my long list of NO SL and ALL IN trades. If you scour the internet you'll find lots of examples of this being done and the traders were DEAD SURE that the price will go their way. Confidence can be attained as it can be trained. Parents of introvert kids will often send the kids to public speaking course or singing course or something that will demand the kid to appear in public to boost his/her confidence. Same thing applies here. Train, train, and train even more until you numb your nerves. Tom Hougaard talked about this repeatedly and many other heavy scalpers emphasize this as well.

2. You are engaging the PRICE MOMENTUM! You MUST be aware of the momentum of the price. This can be how the price move (up / down), how frequent it is doing during the moment, how is it compared to the previous momentum because the current momentum is being judged relative to the previous momentum/ condition. The incoming tick, how frequent is it, how far the price jump/skip the immediate price above or below.

3. Heightened senses. When your life is on the line you will definitely trigger the fight or flight response and everything might seem to move super slow or you will be super sensitive to what's going on with the price and chart. Those who have never experienced this sensation don't know what I'm talking about. If you want to try, do it on a tiny live account and trick your brain to think that "this is the only money I have left in this world". Sounds ridiculous? I know. Put yourself in a situation where you are totally uncomfortable watch how your fingers and body sweat a lot. There is no other way to explain this unless you are in a dangerous situation. Well, don't put your life on the line but just put your money instead. During this trance-like condition, a minute will feel suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuper loooooooooooooooooooooooooong.

4. Trade only during very liquid times or when the pattern is vivid. There are 3 times during the day when the market is very liquid while there are different times when the pattern will be very clear. You need this because this will enhance your odds with clear bias and in turn boost your confidence even more.

5. If the time to trade coincide with high-impact news then there are 2 ways to do this. First is by entering the trades before the news event either by using market order or pending order. The second way is to gauge the move post-news event when things are a bit smoother though still very fast and violent.

6. Measure the risk properly so you won't get stopped out too early in the game. The risk the space. You can do small space with bigger entries or you can do bigger space with smaller entries. This is how you must arrange your layers. Even though you at times you will put your whole account at risk, it doesn't have to blow it. This is why you have layers. You can always stop the bleeding if things don't go your way and the only way to do this is when you are in a super sensitive state (#3). NO SL and/or ALL IN doesn't mean you just drop your account when things go south. Manage the loss, think fast, decide fast.

7. Manage your capital properly. I already put a post on this on the 1st page (1st post).

8. No negative balance protection. Make sure your broker adopt this risk management approach. In the event when either your SL is not honored or your account hit MC, you want to be sure that the broker won't go look for you for the extra margin needed to cover the total loss :lol: :lol: :lol: That's why I don't think you can do this in the futures market.


I hope this helps whoever needs the knowledge!

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Patterns Observation
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post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

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Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Mira » Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:26 am

Don_xyZ wrote:London trades.

4 trades, no loss.
100% hit rate.
11 minutes, 40%++.
With SL.
Normal trades, no layer.

Jul. 18 16.16.jpg

London session done. Let's take a break and refresh for NY!


Very interesting, I have to keep an eye on your thread!!
Good job!!
__________ THE :smt096 IS A LIE__________

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Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Mira » Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:35 am

Don_xyZ wrote:The science (some of it) of NO SL and ALL IN trades.

It can simply be summarized in just 1 word.... MOMENTUM.

Apparently, there is a lot going on in the background prior to taking those kinds of trades and it's kinda impossible for me to write them all up and it will encourage the not-think-for-yourself attitude :) So I will just share some.

1. Bias is KING! Actually, no matter what style of trading you use you will always need bias. The difference is you need to be DEAD SURE that the price will go your way whether it's for just 2 pips or 5 or 10 or even 100s. What? It's impossible! But it is possible as shown in my long list of NO SL and ALL IN trades. If you scour the internet you'll find lots of examples of this being done and the traders were DEAD SURE that the price will go their way. Confidence can be attained as it can be trained. Parents of introvert kids will often send the kids to public speaking course or singing course or something that will demand the kid to appear in public to boost his/her confidence. Same thing applies here. Train, train, and train even more until you numb your nerves. Tom Hougaard talked about this repeatedly and many other heavy scalpers emphasize this as well.

2. You are engaging the PRICE MOMENTUM! You MUST be aware of the momentum of the price. This can be how the price move (up / down), how frequent it is doing during the moment, how is it compared to the previous momentum because the current momentum is being judged relative to the previous momentum/ condition. The incoming tick, how frequent is it, how far the price jump/skip the immediate price above or below.

3. Heightened senses. When your life is on the line you will definitely trigger the fight or flight response and everything might seem to move super slow or you will be super sensitive to what's going on with the price and chart. Those who have never experienced this sensation don't know what I'm talking about. If you want to try, do it on a tiny live account and trick your brain to think that "this is the only money I have left in this world". Sounds ridiculous? I know. Put yourself in a situation where you are totally uncomfortable watch how your fingers and body sweat a lot. There is no other way to explain this unless you are in a dangerous situation. Well, don't put your life on the line but just put your money instead. During this trance-like condition, a minute will feel suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuper loooooooooooooooooooooooooong.

4. Trade only during very liquid times or when the pattern is vivid. There are 3 times during the day when the market is very liquid while there are different times when the pattern will be very clear. You need this because this will enhance your odds with clear bias and in turn boost your confidence even more.

5. If the time to trade coincide with high-impact news then there are 2 ways to do this. First is by entering the trades before the news event either by using market order or pending order. The second way is to gauge the move post-news event when things are a bit smoother though still very fast and violent.

6. Measure the risk properly so you won't get stopped out too early in the game. The risk the space. You can do small space with bigger entries or you can do bigger space with smaller entries. This is how you must arrange your layers. Even though you at times you will put your whole account at risk, it doesn't have to blow it. This is why you have layers. You can always stop the bleeding if things don't go your way and the only way to do this is when you are in a super sensitive state (#3). NO SL and/or ALL IN doesn't mean you just drop your account when things go south. Manage the loss, think fast, decide fast.

7. Manage your capital properly. I already put a post on this on the 1st page (1st post).

8. No negative balance protection. Make sure your broker adopt this risk management approach. In the event when either your SL is not honored or your account hit MC, you want to be sure that the broker won't go look for you for the extra margin needed to cover the total loss :lol: :lol: :lol: That's why I don't think you can do this in the futures market.


I hope this helps whoever needs the knowledge!

SL.jpg


Wise words and useful post, thank you.
That’s the true “secret” of trading, not the strategy itself.

Discipline and consistency while applying a trading plan that covers the money management and emotions control.
Today I’m going to buy a small challenge with MFF (finally they removed the time limit), I’ll keep your words in mind.
__________ THE :smt096 IS A LIE__________

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Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Mira » Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:50 am

Don_xyZ wrote:4. Trade only during very liquid times or when the pattern is vivid. There are 3 times during the day when the market is very liquid while there are different times when the pattern will be very clear. You need this because this will enhance your odds with clear bias and in turn boost your confidence even more.


About that I made some study some month ago.
I wrote a simple Python script to plot the volatility by hour of an instrument, the same that you can find here: https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools/volatility

IMG_1811.jpeg
IMG_1811.jpeg (93.85 KiB) Viewed 8067 times


Notice how, for EU, 7/8 and 14 are the best hours to trade compared to the previous hour.
I tested some intraday strategy and came to the conclusion that I won’t trade intraday out of these high volatility hours.
MAYBE it could even make some EA profitable :shock:
__________ THE :smt096 IS A LIE__________

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Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Wed Jul 19, 2023 1:47 pm

Mira wrote:
Don_xyZ wrote:4. Trade only during very liquid times or when the pattern is vivid. There are 3 times during the day when the market is very liquid while there are different times when the pattern will be very clear. You need this because this will enhance your odds with clear bias and in turn boost your confidence even more.


About that I made some study some month ago.
I wrote a simple Python script to plot the volatility by hour of an instrument, the same that you can find here: https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools/volatility

IMG_1811.jpeg

Notice how, for EU, 7/8 and 14 are the best hours to trade compared to the previous hour.
I tested some intraday strategy and came to the conclusion that I won’t trade intraday out of these high volatility hours.
MAYBE it could even make some EA profitable :shock:


Yes, you need stats to back you up. There are different stats for different needs but they all should be part of your WIL.

And thank you for visiting my thread :)
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

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Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:12 pm

You're right IgazI. M30 is the best for intra-day.

For the other backbone for the mini anchor trade, I think I'm drawn much more toward H3 instead of H4. It makes sense and this, again, was already mentioned by IgazI. Man, you're heaven-sent!!! =D> =D> =D>

MTF overlays.png
MTF overlays.png (92.33 KiB) Viewed 8026 times


Now the mini anchor trade has a really solid basis!
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

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Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Yirbu » Wed Jul 19, 2023 3:39 pm

Mira wrote:
Don_xyZ wrote:4. Trade only during very liquid times or when the pattern is vivid. There are 3 times during the day when the market is very liquid while there are different times when the pattern will be very clear. You need this because this will enhance your odds with clear bias and in turn boost your confidence even more.


About that I made some study some month ago.
I wrote a simple Python script to plot the volatility by hour of an instrument, the same that you can find here: https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools/volatility

IMG_1811.jpeg

Notice how, for EU, 7/8 and 14 are the best hours to trade compared to the previous hour.
I tested some intraday strategy and came to the conclusion that I won’t trade intraday out of these high volatility hours.
MAYBE it could even make some EA profitable :shock:



I often check these stats for reference and take extra attention when my trade hits the max for that hour.
Works very good.

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Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Sat Jul 22, 2023 2:33 pm

Close price shows the bias.
Anything above close price is up, anything below close price is down.
All that's left is the pick the fight.

Jul. 22 22.15.jpg
Jul. 22 22.15.jpg (67.79 KiB) Viewed 7943 times

Jul. 22 22.18.jpg
Jul. 22 22.18.jpg (76.36 KiB) Viewed 7943 times

Jul. 22 22.21.jpg
Jul. 22 22.21.jpg (68.21 KiB) Viewed 7943 times


Catch the Tail.
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

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Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Wed Jul 26, 2023 8:39 am

Catch the tail July 26 2023.png
Catch the tail July 26 2023.png (138.11 KiB) Viewed 7870 times


SWOT Analysis of Catch The Tail

Strength
When you're correct in reading the situation you will get minimum to zero drawdown as the big candle push through strongly in the direction of your profit. Sometimes, this can go for multiple candles or a series of move.

Weakness
There will times when the price will struggle at the open price level so you must be ready with your WIL because then, you will have to make quick decisions whether to take the next trade or not and whether to switch side from buy to sell or vice versa.

Opportunity
With Catch The Tail, there is really no shortage of trading opportunities during the whole day regardless of the trading session.

Threat
Even though you have a lot of opportunities you have to be aware of quiet hours as during this period sometimes it's not worth it to try to ride the formation of the body.



WIL
Q: How to determine the bias?
A: Use the major trend or minor trend or micro trend.

Q: What if there is a clash of bias?
A: Analyze the situation and pick your course of action.
Q: Yeah, like how?
A: Use your trade grading method properly. If the chances of making let's say 10 pips is slim then try to use the criterion for scalping and see if there is a good chance of getting 5 pips or less. If the situation is too hectic, the price moving up and down in a small pips succession, then it's not worth taking that scalp. And so on depending on your WIL.

Q: How much should I target?
A: Depends on your pair, time frame, time of day (killzone or outside of it), stats, presence of high-impact news, ongoing trend or ongoing pattern, the closest S/D or S/R etc.

Q: What if I lose?
A: You will lose money in trading so the question is by how much? Can you limit it? How will you limit it? Under what condition must you continue pushing through and under what condition must you stop and stay on the side line? If you need to re-enter, how/ what/ when to do it? What is your capital management style? Do you even have one setup properly?

And a lot more questions...

The main function of WIL is to eliminate fear that often comes from doubt, guesswork and in turn, boost your confidence in taking trades that you should be taking.
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

Image

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Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Fri Jul 28, 2023 8:30 am

Oh.... my fiber optic internet is (still) down since yesterday. Running on mobile data sucks! :evil: :evil: :evil:

USDJPYH3.png
USDJPYH3.png (82.07 KiB) Viewed 7781 times

USDJPYM30.png
USDJPYM30.png (81.81 KiB) Viewed 7781 times

USDJPYM30 + H3 overlay.png
USDJPYM30 + H3 overlay.png (121.64 KiB) Viewed 7781 times


Multiple-bias analysis:
Big pattern on H3
Small pattern on H3
Big pattern on M30
Small pattern on M30
Big pattern on M5/M1.
Small pattern on M5/M1.

Bias will turn into a trend but bias is also the trend :!:

Still Catch The Tail.

Updated 1st post's list to add Catch The Tail and WIL:
post148989#p148989
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

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