MEX INTEREST RATE March 25 2021

[JamesThatcher]

Country of release - Mexico

What does the data mean to the market? Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on MXN Pairs and vice versa.

Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

Nov 2020, Saw an 18 basis point (bps) hike from the average forecast, which created 546 pips in 1 min, which meant 30 pips per 1Bps!
+0.25 bps above the rounded forecast,
See charts→
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/ ... 11-12;r=M1

Aug 2019, Saw a +25 bps hike from the average forecast, which was a lovely move!
See charts→
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.c ... TE1O3I9TTE.


Today’s Forecast
The forecast is 4%
Hi = 4.0
Low = 3.75
Avg = 3.93
Median = 4
16 out of 23 economists say there is no chance of a cut to the rate today. That's a 70% chance of no change.

Today’s Trade Plan

Hopefully, today if we see: -
-0.25 cut today would be 18 bps, so maybe expect 18x30=540 pips
+0.25 hike would be 32bps, so maybe expect 32x30= 960 pips

These are just estimates, though!

Tradable Pairs
USDMXN or EURMXN