TygerKrane's Pip-Pickpocketing

[TygerKrane]

I've heard the concept mentioned around here, but never saw anyone do the actual math, so here is what I came up with:

To add one zero to your account by the end of a year

You need a 21.2% gain a month compounded for 12 months
----------------
To add two zeros to your account by the end of a year

You need a 46.8% gain a month compounded for 12 months



Considering that you need a 106pip run at 20:1 leverage (not taking into account any additional percentage gains from building into that 20:1lev postion):



&
Thank You MightyOne for sticking around

~Krane

Also, MO, I really do appreciate the post/pic.

[TygerKrane]

"Ok, so in either case [[Blind Mouse vs. SPACE WARS]], your average tells you at which point your own risk capital begins to get eroded at."
"Not exactly, that's only true for first set of adding in. Once you begin liquidating and converting between space/lots, the place where YOUR money is at in the scheme of things isn't so straightforward."

۩≡ Your (available) initial risk in pips:lots [x] Your change in lots ('before'/'after') = Where your money is in relation to your POSITION


Mainly useful for visualizing where YOUR money is once you start compressing and reshaping your accumulated profit.

Most importantly of course is adhering to your IF/THEN line when trading.

[TygerKrane]

It is like this...

Let us say that I have the idea that price eventually moves 1,000 pips be it in 5 months or a year.

Because price does move 1,000 pips I need only be in position & protect said position from being wiped out by "corrections".
As long as I have space I have position, as long as I have position I am in the market, & as long as I am in the market price I will carry me to the statistical range expansion of x period of time.

If I were to compare distance traveled to % gained to a pyramid then most of my money would be made in the top 3rd of the pyramid; it is a move as small as a daily candle that will double my account when I reach a large position size.

Some will say, "if that is true then you could easily lose 100% of your account in one day!"

The truth is that by that time you will have a lot of space and a guaranteed gain of 0+ to 100% of your account

You won't get paid every day like a scalper but your checks will be for one very large lump sum.

I just felt like doing something visual...

[bredin]

"Ok, so in either case [[Blind Mouse vs. SPACE WARS]], your average tells you at which point your own risk capital begins to get eroded at."
"Not exactly, that's only true for first set of adding in. Once you begin liquidating and converting between space/lots, the place where YOUR money is at in the scheme of things isn't so straightforward."

If the Risk I have at the start of a trade sequence is $200, then MY risk is always the bottom $200 of the space.

How big a piece that is is dependent on the current condition of the R side of my account ledger.

G.

[TygerKrane]

Yeah, I could simplify it starting off with dollar values


If I'm risking $50 and trading with 8lots,

$50/ .80per pip ; My money is occupying 62.5pips of whatever the box space is.

and if I've accumulated profits and am now trading at say 17lots,

$50/ 1.70per pip ; My money is occupying 29.5pips of whatever the box space is.

Yeah, that's a simpler math to visualize it on the charts, thanks.

[TygerKrane]

I didn't realize that you could calculate where your average price will lie with a formula similar to the one used to calculate your POSITION:
[hr][hr][hr]
http://www.kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic ... 6832#46832
...
CurrentNumberOfLots / TotalLotsAfterLastPurchase = RET


I have 6 lots and purchase 9 more setting my average at a 40% RET between my last price/average and last purchase price.

6 lots divided by a total of 15 lots is 40%.
...

[TygerKrane]

As I prepared for "Re-Trading" this past week, I found myself digging in the Blind Mouse thread to help get my mind right...

Found some gems

I get the sick feeling that this time next year most everyone will have the same account size.

There are two thing that you can do right now to change this:

1. Do not lose more than 5% in a week
[highlight=#33FFCC] Initial risk has nothing to do with profit potential but has everything to do with survivability.[/highlight]

2. Exit at or on a close beyond the extremes
If you can't accurately pick the exact low then what makes you think that price is going to reverse before making an even lower low?

Does your bottom picking accuracy somehow skyrocket when you are in profit?

Minimize loss & maximize profit, that is all there is to it.

i.e., Just because you risked a little in the beginning, it does not mean that you can't make A LOT in the end.

1. Price closed over a line on a high TF chart (DWMY)

2. Trade off of the high TF Wick Doll

3. Using a CC of no less than 1/8 the high TF, price closes over a line.

4. Enter with a small position size

5. If long, find support and move your average price below it.

6. Switch to larger and larger charts and move your average price below the S&R of that TF.

7. The moment you wish to exit, place a limit order at the high extreme.

...

Ok, I'll try to explain this again...

Forget all the fancy names and other crap.

Look at the daily+ charts and ask yourself if price last closed higher or lower than something; don't get too technical, just go with your gut.

If price last closed higher than something then you are trading off of daily+ low extremes.

At some point you will be at a daily+ low extreme on a small(er) tf chart. Wait for said chart to close a CC higher than something and just buy.

If a correction is obvious (if you have such powers of prediction) then exit and buy back lower but do not abuse this; twice is more than enough.

As price moves in your favor, switch to a higher TF chart and set an average below a support level for that period.

Attempt to move your trades to the weekly chart, but if the weekly chart did not close higher than something then your highest chart should be a daily chart.

-Don't simply buy low and sell high

[highlight=#33FFCC]-Buy low, keep buying, and sell highest.[/highlight]

Trading long off of the circled daily extremes would have been within Blind Mouse Strategy.

1. Daily+ must have closed above something

2. Trade off of the daily+ low

My only issue now is adding lots.
...

It depends on the timeframe...

Ideally you want to get as many lots in there as possible.

Realistically you are probably going to be setting 60-80% RETs until you get your position onto the daily+ chart

If you have balls the size of Alliasmith (my balls aren't even that big ) you will be at 100:1 before you ever get to the daily chart

...
Everyone is obsessed with fading the extremes, but what if you were to trade with the trend (duh!), accept that losing trades are a part of being a successful trader
...

You can fade the extremes in the direction of the trend...in fact that is what you are supposed to do:

1. Price close lower than "something"

2. Trade off the high extremes

Simple.

http://www.kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic ... 6302#46302

The pic MO posted of USDCHF really has everything you need.

CCs are used to keep you from missing the correct direction of the trend. Do you see what the current trend is? It's down!

Now look at the lines MO made. Each time, price crosses below it. This means the trend is still down. The direction to take is down.

We have the direction, now we need to enter. Logically, the best to place to enter on this chart would be the high of each day, right? That's where extremes come into play. Trade short from the daily high extremes while price keeps crossing below your lines.

[highlight=#FFCC66]It's like you are taking small retracements in the trend through your entrances off the extremes.[/highlight]

Does it make sense or am I crazy?

The only requirements to go long are:

a. daily+ extreme

b. daily+ closed higher than something.

if you are trading corrections then you ignore "b" and exit prior to the close of the daily+ period at the highest high or lowest low:

[TygerKrane]

Week 19
3/5/11 - 3/9/11
0 entries
0%



I could totally use just one more week to feel a bit more confident about how I want to trade, but as I look back and see that it's now been 6 weeks of NO TRADING...well that's not exactly progress either...

Good things happened during the break, no doubt:



but now, it's time to get back to business
I'll figure out the rest as I go along




[font=Verdana]§§¤¤ Instant Self-Discipline, Weeks 1 - 10 ¤¤§§[/font]

:!:



Week 11
1/9/11 - 1/13/11
24 entries
-6.41%



Well for my trading in general, I have recently been choosing a pair, drawing a line on the previous day's D1 candle (by zooming into the H1 and looking for an area), and trading Long above Short below.
Friday was the day that killed me for this week, I was hotheaded and stubborn the way I managed the trading that day. I was pretty much stalking my charts day and night, trying to accumulate a profit cushion so I could roll it into a big position. I was trading mostly AU. I have no idea why it was so hard for me to accumulate anything this week. Not that I've been having super-great results thus far, BUT for the fact that I was so glued to my computer this particular week, it was baffling/irritating how I kept missing what I needed. By Thurs night/Fri, I was no more than -1%. I put my foot down and declared "Profit cushion or not, I'm making my big AU trade NOW!"

The PA over the last two days looked to be setting up nicely, plus there was a nice bit of D1 Zlining that just happened, so I figured a swing low had been set --and that I had the all clear to go prematurely higher leverage...that sh!t spiked/whiplashed so bad, I was checking my calendar to see if was NFP day, LOL. And it definitely was just a spike where price pretty much recovered back to previous levels...The most irritating part of that spike being, that even if I had caught my OPTIMAL entry and was holding it from TWO DAYS BACK, that area/ swing low got violated as well.

I have to say, at the current moment, if I'm building up a position, I don't like the idea of placing Stop orders to automatically shed lots for me, I'd much rather try and be more personally involved at that time, but maybe I am just being backwards...

I know, I know, pictures would help, I have 'em; lets see if I can get them out.









Week 12
1/16/11 - 1/20/11
10 entries
CLOSED TRADES=4.24% | CLOSED TRADES [plus] OPEN POSITIONS=13.75%



Surprisingly few trades this week.

Gradually circling in and narrowing down my entry criteria and finding the ltf PA that makes me go
Different Stop Losses and maybe Entry Leverage as I rank my entry setups.
Will need to write these down several times over I suppose as I try to prioritize and rank them.
Hopefully, soon (while understanding that I am NOT trying to find a Holy Grail of entries) I will feel satisfied enough in them to commit them to Procedural Memory.

Trading based on Daily line has been a GREAT help as far as helping analyze what I'm doing for entries. Just flip-flopping my bias with each MOMO and then trying to find what makes a good entry good through all that definitely complicated things more for me than they needed to be.

As for attaining one-ness with my Entries, recently, it's not so much a lightbulb going off, as it is a lightbulb wavering (? is that the right word?); dim, then bright, then dim, then BRIGHT, then DIM, then Bright...

A more deliberate attempt of using SPACE WARS this week. I think I have some great step-by-step pictures of how I went about the whole thing, will definitely be a good review to me, I was surprised how I was able to flow into using it maybe. Maybe I was just having a clear thinking week.

Definitely, built up into a great AU trade this week though, ended Friday with a beautiful picture of my trading station. Of course the positions are still open, so I can't call the profits mine...I don't want to close it though, it looks like quite the nice breakout, even if it means that some Zlining is about to occur (a.k.a. a PERFECT opportunity for those who prefer to trade the Breakout Bounce...) {SPACE don't fail me now, lol}




[highlight=#FF6600]===============================================================================================================[/highlight]

Other than that, Krane is about to have a WHOLE LOT LESS free time...{sigh}, but for good reasons at least.
___1}I have to undergo intense foreign language study
___2}I just received this badboy, and I'ma try and go ALL-IN on it
______<< While you're on that page, check out "Sexy Beast Workout Tutorial"; Czech Republic FTW!!! >>



How to Change the World (Hint: It Starts with You)

Nowhere near as good as the We Are Traders video, but it has its merits nonetheless...

:!:



Week 13
1/23/11 - 1/27/11
39 entries
CLOSED TRADES=4.65% | CLOSED TRADES [plus] OPEN POSITIONS=-4.10%



At one point during the week, my intra-week gains had me only 5.6% away from my initial starting balance of $1250. I then got super-aggressive stupidly and hit myself with my own leverage sword.
I wonder if I can find some of my likeable trades from the week for review...

After that, busy season kicked in hardcore at the j-o-b and all I could really do was observe the market...that and come home and hit up The Rack.








Week 14
1/30/11 - 2/3/11
0 entries
0%










Week 15
2/6/11 - 2/10/11
0 entries
0%










Week 16
2/13/11 - 2/17/11
0 entries
0%










Week 17
2/20/11 - 2/24/11
0 entries
0%










Week 18
2/27/11 - 3/2/11
0 entries
0%






[highlight=#FF6600]===============================================================================================================[/highlight]

OMG, this busy season was off the hook!!...every busy season pushes me to perfect my trading skill...so that I don't need to be around for another busy season

It looks like I still need another week to cross some t's and dot some i's on my workflow, so Week 19 might be another goose egg.
I hate the mild anxiety I get when it's time to start 're-trading'.

I just need to remember and keep repeating my "Calm the -F- Down" mantra:

http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=57488#57488 {slightly reworded}
[font=Comic Sans MS][highlight=darkgreen]Turning on my trading station and reacting to what the charts present to me, as I get to my destination, [/highlight]
[highlight=darkgreen]should feel no different than [/highlight]
[highlight=darkgreen]Turning on my car and reacting to what the roads present to me, as I get to my destination.[/highlight][/font]

[TygerKrane]

[highlight=darkgreen]These are some of the issues and major roadblocks that I used to have[/highlight]

Ok, not saying that I've completely gotten over ALL of them , but I was going through the thread and could *totally* remember how at some point, these things were just INCREDIBLE barriers that frustrated the hell out of me.
And I guess there is a special reason why I am reposting them here, instead of just linking back to them...

[font=Andalus]Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 1:52 pm[/font]..... Post subject: What I mean to say...

I exited full position b/c I couldn't figure out what I could do next. I couldn't figure out from zline analysis if it had more upward potential or not. Plus it had made it past the consolidation area where last week ended (on the M15 chart, around June 4 20:45). After I exited the full position I wanted to re-enter and see if I could get more, but I found that I was too confused looking at charts by zline analysis vs TRO rat reversal off of Day Extreme. (Maybe I was just also being cheap and didn't want to give up/put at risk any of the money I just made. I think either of these two posts relate to it a bit; Overtrading Type #2, or I am not able to catch big moves because...) But maybe so hard to think b/c I had literally just rolled out of bed and my head was whatever. I need to go back and re-read my zline notes anyways.

What I mean to say is, if I woke up to the above chart 7A EST, and I HADN'T had the benefit of having a great trade behind me already for the day, how could I approach the above chart so that I could still get my daily profit target of the day??

This is the question that I need to know how to answer...

When I can look at a chart and balance, [highlight=orange]spotting the right opportunity right away[/highlight] vs [highlight=darkorange]knowing when to wait longer for the right opportunity[/highlight], then I will have conquered a great cause of my drawdowns.

Right?
Right! I won't have those rushed, regretful entries that come when my mind is flustered asking, "Is NOW the time??? I don't want to miss it before the day is out!?!"

And I'm sure you all agree that even starting from 7A EST, that still leaves me enough time in that day to catch a zline setup on EJ...

[font=Andalus]Posted: Wed Jun 30, 2010 5:53 pm[/font]..... Post subject: Re: Paper Trading setup for 06-30-10...RESULT#1

[highlight=darkred][font=lucida console]Two sources of drawdown for me:[/font][/highlight]
1. Entries that go against me
2. Trades in profit, that I don't take quick pips on b/c I weirdly think that any trade that stays good for 15mins means that it is destined to net me 75+ pips...

I need better discretion to avoid the second type of drawdown. Psychologically, I find that either:
a) I get a good trade for 75+ pips FIRST and then I think that every trade I enter thereafter should net me 75+ pips
or
b)I get in drawdown from type#1 [one trade or several trades], and then I think that my next trade [singular] should go large enough to cover losses

So, mentally, I need to work on my discretion when it comes to taking the easy pips that the market gives me.

[font=Andalus]Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:02 pm[/font]..... Post subject: Reversals Anonymous...

[font=Verdana][highlight=violet]I Truly Have an Addiction to Reversals:[/highlight][/font]

Honestly. When I turn on my trading station it is the first thing I look for [reversals to go long, reversals to go short], and sometimes, unfortunately, I miss a hell of a lot b/c I miss seeing that continuations are part of the game as well.

There is a saying that goes something like, "If all you have is a Hammer, then the whole world begins to look like a Nail to you." I don't know if I can use that to actually help me...but it definitely seems fitting of my current mental situation, I say.

In the back of my mind, I am conjuring up ways in which the H4 can help me from getting whipped & battered in situations like this. (I guess there is also always the Zline basics that I can reconsider as well. )

As you can see, trying to get a long-term, Long position was a dismal bias for the last few days.

M90:




H4:

[hr][hr][hr]Adding-In Issues
[font=Andalus]Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:24 pm[/font]..... Post subject: Solving/Addressing my adding in problem #1

[font=Microsoft Sans Serif][highlight=darkviolet]Solving/Addressing my adding in problem[/highlight][/font]

So, I'm just gonna start posting about the conflict or whatever I get for adding in. {I guess I'll start reading Space Wars too }

So you see my AJ Long entries, and my average line. In this case, my average line is only 4 pips below the start of the MZ on H1.
The M5 shows - what looks to me like - a good entry on the M5.
I didn't take the add-in b/c I didn't want to accept higher leverage so close to my average line, so I grudgingly pass up this possible ZLining that might be going on at this point.

On a very realistic note, that M5 entry would've been VERY HARD for me to take. Even though the candle pointed by black pullsback midway to a previous Long candle, I wouldn't really be considering that previous white Long candle as a MOMO.

[font=Andalus]Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 8:11 am[/font]..... Post subject: UCad Short, 10-03-11, Hazarding an Educated Guess

[highlight=darkviolet]Hazarding an Educated Guess:[/highlight]

UCad Short @ 1.0476, stop@ 1.0495 (red line on charts)

Chart shows my exact entry. In either case, I don't see the top @ 1.0521 being broken. I'll be at my Trading Station for the next few hours, so I'll babysit this one. Either gravity sets in or my stop gets hit. If I keep my initial entry here as is without adding lots I'm looking for hundreds. I would say Gravity to Parity and not exiting till then, but If I try to add in, I would most likely have to close sooner cause my average line has a way of getting hit...

H3, H1, M20, M5:

[font=Andalus]Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 12:18 pm[/font]..... Post subject: (No subject)

Picture myself here again

At the time of chart, about +63, +63 & +56; price is @60pips from my avg line, and I'm trying to make a decision about adding in... (slap my head, but there is hope for me yet )

I lost 37pips total trying to get this position (-19 & -18 )

after I made my initial statement about UCad, I wanted to retract it, b/c I realized I didn't take into account that the USD had been killing all of the other pairs at that time...(so I probably would've wanted to wait till the USD lost some of its strength.)

And I ACTUALLY AM looking for a top in UCad, so that's why, I'm not just banking the pips I got. For just one last time I want to try and hold on for a major move. If it doesn't work, oh well, I think my shorter-term analysis is getting better Anywayz.

[TygerKrane]

[font=Verdana][highlight=violet]I have revised the second posting of this thread[/highlight][/font]

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